The project aims to develop and refine species distribution models (SDM) of the 987 plant species included in the Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010 with the perspective to support conservation management. The SDM refinement for these endangered species includes two major aspects, namely (1) the inclusion of remote sensing data besides climatic data and (2) spatial assessments of model uncertainty. For each species, different products of distribution ranges (continuous, categorical) are modeled at 1 km² resolution using different algorithms (e.g. Maxent, GLM, RandomForest). As remote sensing predictors, Terra-MODIS time series (Enhanced Vegetation Index, Land Surface Temperature, Surface reflectance) which have been shown to be useful for vegetation classification are analyzed. The project also involves importance assessments of climate and remote sensing variables to explain species distributions and the extraction of species-specific phenological profiles. Maps of areas where climatically suitable space is not occupied by a species according to remotely sensed distribution ranges are produced to identify probable hot spots of anthropogenic habitat deterioration in the country. The use of current remote sensing data for species distribution modeling thus paves the way towards a national biodiversity monitoring system. |